The Hays County Commissioners Court lifted the burn ban last week with the hope that the weatherman would be right, as heavy showers were predicted across the area.
“Hays County has since experienced some rainfall; and the current weather forecast shows a more favorable condition with chances of additional moisture and higher (humidities),” the county’s order lifting the ban on Nov. 4 said. For some parts of the county, the plan worked like a charm. In Wimberley, well, the rain did what rain does.
“They said we were supposed to get a bunch of rain, but we didn’t get a lot of the rain we were supposed to get,” Wimberley Fire Chief Carroll Czichos said. “In Wimberley that happens a lot. It went around us. In San Marcos, they got around two inches on Friday. It missed us completely and went up the Balcones Fault straight up (Interstate 35).”
There are around a dozen rain gauges throughout the Wimberley Valley reported on Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network. A few showed around half an inch of rain on Friday, but the majority showed trace amounts. The rain was not consistent across the county.
This shows up in the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) that is used to determine forest fire potential. “The drought index is based on a daily water balance, where a drought factor is balanced with precipitation and soil moisture,” the KBDI website explains. “…The drought index ranges from 0 to 800, where a drought index of 0 represents no moisture depletion, and an index of 800 represents absolutely dry conditions.”
The majority of Texas is under the 500 value threshold with many portions having no drought or fire issues. However, Central Texas and Hays County in general stand out still. The lowest KBDI measurement in Hays County is 501 as of November 6 before the area received some rain on Monday. The highest is 740 located in far west Hays County near the Blanco and Comal county lines. The average KBDI measurement in Hays County is 615.
Even with those higher numbers, Czichos didn’t express a lot of concern about the burn ban being lifted.
“We’ve got green grass out there,” Czichos said. “I think it’s probably not a bad time if you just watch your fires. Don’t burn when the wind is blowing. Get it started early in the morning when that heavy dew is on the ground… We’ve got these little storms coming up, so just make sure you use common sense. Don’t burn in the wind. I recommend keeping your piles small.”
Czichos also recommended that anyone planning to burn get an open burn permit from the county, though it is not required for residential and non-commercial burns. It can be found on the hayscountytx.com by clicking on the burn ban link as well as on haysinformed. com. These types of dry conditions are expected to continue throughout the near future, according to reports put out by federal weather officials late last month as reported by the Associated Press.
La Niña is a weather pattern characterized by cold ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are now reporting that the pattern is returning for a third winter — a phenomenon which is rarely seen. That means December, January and February are likely to bring drier than average conditions for most parts of Texas.
Wildfires will remain a risk, and some parts of the country may be in even greater danger than before, said Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“One of the areas, over the next couple months, that is likely to have enhanced wildfire danger will be the south-central U.S. — Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas,” Pugh said. “Very dry conditions there. With that dryness, that will be an area for high wildfire danger in the coming three months.”
According to NOAA officials, drought conditions are currently ongoing in about 59% of the country, persisting in western states since late 2020. The continued La Niña climate pattern means that it is likely to expand to the Gulf Coast as well, NOAA said, which is also one of the parts of the country likely to experience higher than average temperatures.
Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting for Atmospheric and Environmental Research, said NOAA’s predictions match with his own expectations for the coming winter.
“I would definitely lean on a milder winter, especially east of the Rockies,” Cohen said. “Wetter to the north, drier to the south.”
Drought has had major consequences in states like California in recent years, including hurting agriculture operations, spurring water use cutbacks and elevating the risk of wildfires. This year, areas throughout Texas experienced much of the same; the recent reports from federal weather officials indicate this will persist at least through the end of the year and into 2023.
NOAA’s forecast is similar to projections from computer-based models, said Ryan Maue, a private meteorologist based in Atlanta, GA. Many parts of the country that could use a wet or snowy year are unlikely to get one, he said.
“I think the bottom line is we’re on a continuation of what we’ve been seeing over the last year, including last winter, and there’s not expected to be improvement in the drought situation across California and the center of the United States,” Maue said.
Locally, Hays County has spent a large portion of this year in drought with burn bans being turned on, then off, and frequently back on again. Despite experiencing the occasional raincloud or storm, such weather events have been largely limited to one or two days of inconsistent precipitation.
“It’s going to take a significant amount of rain over an extended period of time to bring conditions back to normal fire behavior and potential,” North Hays County Fire Rescue Fire Chief Scott Collard said back in March.
That sentiment has remained true for the region, which experienced a significant number of fires and wildfires over the summer months. The Smoke Rider Fire (Aug. 2–8) and the Gatlin Creek Fire (July 6–10) collectively burned over 1,500 acres in Dripping Springs alone. Nearby areas experienced much of the same, with fires burning in nearby Kyle, Buda and Wimberley.
Despite many — residents and officials alike — hoping that the autumn months would bring drought relief, September and October remained fairly dry for the most part.
Wimberley View Weather Reporter Raymond Schiflett’s monthly report for October shows that the Wimberley area received 2.39 inches of rain bringing the yearly total up to 15.31 inches through the end of the month. That is less than half the normal rainfall up to this point, which is more than 32 inches.
